Monday, January 7, 2013

Another Line In The Sand?

A while back the Obama administration drew a "line in the sand" of sorts on Syrian govt forces possible use of chemical weapons. It just wasn't going to be tolerated you see.

Since this line was drawn, there are reports that there is the possibility that Syrian forces have indeed used these same weapons in limited strikes. Whether true or not is any one's guess. I would imagine that American mainstream media types would shy away from reporting an incident for "political" purposes. At any rate, I am hesitant to believe that this administration is really serious about their implicit threats of military engagement with Assad loyalists over the issue.

The Syrian civil war is a geopolitical danger to be sure. Not your average who cares Mohammedan vs Mohammedan conflict. This one has the potential (however unlikely) to involve major players in an adversarial military relationship. Carl in Jerusalem has reported that a Soviet err Russian flotilla, including warships and assault elements,  is gathering off the Syrian coast. If the report is correct (and I'm sure that it is), this throws an interesting twist into the line in the sand thing that the Obama administration has bleated of.

What if Syrian forces under Assad did use chemical weapons to gain the upper hand in what is becoming an apparently lost situation? In the unlikely event that the Obama regime is serious about getting involved over such an action, would the presence of Russian forces in the vicinity be a deterrent? Probably and rightly so.  At this time the Syrian conflict is not worth getting involved with even without the presence of the Russian military in the region. The Russian forces would be swept aside rather quickly if it came to that, but I would imagine that just their presence alone would deter any real military action against Assad. Just not worth the risk.

That might be a good thing. Assad is evil obviously, but he is a well known evil.

It may be best to just let this thing play out the old fashioned way and be prepared to deal harshly   with the aftermath if need be.


Jayhawk said...

The so-called chemical attack was more than a week ago. It was reported by the rebel forces and, sicnce they didn't know what symptoms they were supposed to describe, the ones they reported were not those of any chemical weapon known to exist. More like household bleach in small quantities. It was, as most Syrian battle reports are, completely bogus.

The Russian ships are there to evacuate Russian citizens in the event that it becomes necessary to do so. Syria is a Russian client and many Russians live there. The supposed instability of the Assad government is belied by the fact that Russian citizens are not being evacuated at this point.

The Russians have made it clear that they have not the slightest intention of participating in the conflict, although they have been supplying weapons to Assad for years in much the same manner that we have been supplying weapons to Israel.

Bartender Cabbie said...

Still a very interesting and dangerous conflict. It is dangerous to have Russian and NATO forces in close proximity when both have interests that conflict.
I would hope the old INCSEA manuals are dusted off.